A revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—”a tour de force”—from the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge (New York Times).
Imagine two doctors in the same city giving different diagnoses to the same patients, or two judges in the same courthouse giving away entirely different sentences to people who have committed the same crime.Assume that different interviewers at the same company make different decisions about indistinguishable job candidates, or that the resolution of a customer complaint is reliant on who answers the phone.Consider how a doctor, a judge, an interviewer, or a customer service representative might make different decisions depending on whether it’s morning or afternoon, Monday or Wednesday. This is an example of noise: variation in judgments that should be the same.
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise has negative consequences in a variety of fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection, in their book Noise. There is noise wherever there is judgment.Individuals and organizations, on the other hand, are frequently unaware of it. They do not pay attention to noise. People can reduce both noise and bias with a few easy solutions, allowing them to make far better decisions.
Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it. Noise is packed with original ideas and offers the same research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers.